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The New York Giants outscored the Washington Commanders 20-12 in their Week 15 rematch.

The game was more stressful than anyone would have preferred, but the Giants ultimately got the win. While the Giants took the lead early in the second quarter — and wouldn’t let it go — this game was a back-and-forth affair much more than the box score would suggest.

The win featured a breakout performance from rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux and a bit of a breakout from the defense as a whole.

But aspects of the game are often lost – or at least overlooked – in the moment. What light can statistics and analysis shed on the victory of the Giants?

games of the game

This game was won by the Giants defense, no doubt. The defense came away with the biggest plays in terms of win probability and EPA, and it wasn’t exactly close.

The biggest play of the game on the win odds chart was the fourth quarter sack by Dexter Lawrence and Azeez Ojulari. While Taylor Heinicke was initially ruled by contact, that decision was reversed and resulted in a sack-fumble which was recovered by the Giants. That play was worth a whopping 31% chance of winning, dropping Washington’s chance of winning from 53% to just 22%. At the time, the Giants were leading 17-12, but were reeling as Washington just sprinted down the field. A field goal would have put Washington in a position to potentially win with a field goal. Instead, he put together a big drive that resulted in a field goal to put the game out of reach.

The biggest play in terms of expected points added was, unsurprisingly, Kayvon Thibodeaux’s sack-fumble-recovery-touchdown. The Giants were down 3-0 in the first quarter and struggled on offense. Their first drive was a very quick 3-and-out that took about 40 seconds off the game clock and their second possession fared a bit better, but not by much. Washington, meanwhile, moved the ball at will between the 20s and the game could have quickly turned ugly had they managed to get traction in the red zone on their third possession. Instead, Thibodeaux made the play of his young career and gave the Giants a 7-3 lead. This play was worth an impressive 6.5 EPA for the Giants and was easily the game’s biggest play.

Just enough offense

Again, the Giants offense was probably best described as doing “enough.” We’ve seen the Giants struggle against teams that can score points, but luckily Washington isn’t one of those teams.

Thanks to that, the Giants were able to win without having to ask their offense – and their passing offense in particular – to do much.

Daniel Jones had just 160 passing yards and averaged 5.0 yards per attempt. According to NFL NextGenStats, his average pass was 5.2 yards from the first scorer and was believed to be 3.7 yards overhead. His average target depth has ranked in the 2nd percentile since 2010, and his average completion has traveled just 3.4 meters in the air.

RBSDM.com/Boxscore

This was probably due to the Giatns and Washington’s scheme.

First and foremost, the Giants didn’t want Washington’s pass rush to destroy their day (again). Last time out, Washington’s defense hit Jones four times and forced a fumble that led to an early 10-0 holeshot.

This time, the Giants wanted to get the ball out fast with “catch and throw” one-play passes. Where the Giants passing game relied more on RPOs and game action bootlegs earlier in the season, it was much more of a traditional fast passing attack that involved far fewer mesh points. The Giants have (correctly) determined that the NFL has mastered their use of play-action and RPO plays. The use of quick play took Washington by surprise and allowed Jones to get the ball off before the Commanders pass rush could reach him.

The Giants’ passing game largely served as an extension of the running game – which itself struggled until the final drive after Heinicke’s second fumble.

The Giants passes were pretty useless from an EPA perspective. They averaged just 0.04 expected points added per pass attempt, and the Giants scored just 13 offensive points. However, they did help the Giants win time in the possession battle and turn the field around.

The Giants’ more traditional passing offense allowed them to take advantage of Jack Del Rio’s preference for Cover 2 and Cover 4 defenses. These coverage patterns would have been well suited to the slightly slower developing passing games that involved mesh points. However, they provided quick separation for Giants receivers and easy, high-percentage completions for Jones. According to NFL NextGenStats, only four of Jones’ 32 pass attempts have been thrown to “covered” receivers.

As they have in recent weeks, the Giants’ receivers have been solid, if unspectacular.

They executed their missions well, generally did a good job of opening up and played when the offense needed them most.

NFL NextGenStats

About the defense

Despite the victory, the Giants had one of their most aggressive offensive performances of the season against Washington. Fortunately, their defense more than took over and it didn’t matter.

Where the Giants had just one offensive game to place in the EPA Top 10 and added win probability (respectively), their defense had four of the best games in expected points added and five games in the added top 10 win probability.

But before we get to what the defense did right, we need to talk about the Giants’ run defense.

Overall, the Giants gave up 159 yards on 29 carries (6.1 yards per carry) over the round. That’s bad enough, but Brian Robinson rushed for 89 yards on just 12 carries, or 7.4 per carry. The Giants may have entered the game with a plan to slow Robinson down, but the only time the Giants were able to consistently defend the run was when the COs opted to use Curtis Sameuel as a runner instead of Robinson. or Antonio Gibson.

Robinson was able to find at least some success no matter where he raced.

Things are unlikely to change drastically with only three games remaining in the regular season.

Luckily, the Giants were able to force Washington into passing situations, and they did a great job of going after Taylor Heinicke.

According to NFL NextGenStats, the Giants pressured Heinicke nearly 40% of his time outs despite “only” blitzing 26.5% of the time. There aren’t many teams that can claim a 26% blitz rate as low, but the Giants top the list. They were able to succeed without relying on the blitz as their Front 4, led by Thibodeaux and Ojulari, did a great job pressing Heinicke constantly.

Even though Washington harassed Daniel Jones in the first meeting, Giants defensemen outplayed Washington linemen in the passing game and practically lived in the opposing backfield.

It also took a lot of the pressure off the Giants secondary and frustrated the Commanders longer range passing offense. That, in turn, also made the Giants’ blitzes much more effective. While the Front Four consistently won their duels, the blitzers were able to generate a ton of pressure.