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Forecast for the DC zone: dry until mid-week, but then stormy and becoming freezing

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A somewhat subjective rating of today’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: The wind chill fades as the sun calls for shade.

  • Today: Sunny. Maximums: 40 to 45.
  • This evening: Some clouds. Lows: 23 to 31.
  • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, a few increases in high cloud. Highs: 44 to 48.

Sunny conditions continue today and most of tomorrow as slightly colder than average weather continues. We will warm up on Thursday with the arrival of rain, but a powerful arctic front is blowing through the region on Friday and could turn the lingering rain into a few flurries. The holiday weekend is expected to be dry but windy and unusually cold for the season.

Today (Tuesday): It’s another cold day. However, generally sunny skies and lighter winds mitigate the cold. Look for heights to reach 40 to 45, with light north winds around 5 mph. The air mass is still very dry, with teenage dew points. Confidence: High

This evening: A few clouds at times, but mostly clear with lows dropping from the low 20s in the outer suburbs to near 30s in the city. The winds are light or near calm at times. Confidence: High

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Tomorrow (Wednesday): More sun is likely, but some high clouds can filter out the sun later in the day. Highs range from low to mid 40s. Light winds blow in from the east at around 5 mph. Confidence: High

Tomorrow evening: Here come the clouds. Generally overcast conditions eventually prevail with low temperatures around dawn ranging from the upper 20s (in our coldest regions) to the mid 30s (downtown). Confidence: medium-high

Thursday should see patches of light rain starting in the morning, but this could initially be mixed with ice pellets and freezing rain in our normally cooler far western and northwest regions (generally west of Hwy 15). Most of today is expected to see rain as highs reach the mid to upper 40s. Rain could become moderate to heavy at times by Thursday evening and overnight as temperatures generally stay in the high 40s or even rise slightly. Confidence: medium

Friday exhibits high volatility. Morning rain continues with temperatures reaching the 50s warmer before a strong arctic cold front arrives at midday. This front causes temperatures to plunge by 15 to 25 degrees in a few hours. Temperatures could approach freezing in the late afternoon or early evening.

There is a chance outside that some wetlands will freeze over quickly, although strong winds can dry things out before that happens. The rain is expected to end fairly quickly with the midday cold front, but may briefly turn to snow before ending.

Winds are strong in the morning, sustained at 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts. Windy afternoon conditions produce very weak wind chills, but skies can be partly sunny behind the front at times. Friday evening is frosty with lows ranging from the upper to mid-teens and wind chills below freezing at times with a possible flurry or flurry. Confidence: medium

Christmas Eve and the day of Christmas are quite cold with mostly sunny skies. Highs remain below freezing on both days, with highs in the 20s to around 30s. Wind chills are even weaker. Saturday evening should see mostly clear skies with teenage lows, but a few single digits are again possible in our far western to northwest areas. Confidence: medium-high

A daily rating of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow next week, on a scale of 0 to 10.

1/10 (→): Flurries or flurries are possible Friday afternoon through Friday evening behind the arctic blast.

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