But many of China’s 1.4 billion people remain vulnerable to the virus due to limited exposure, low vaccination rates and low investment in emergency care. And now funeral homes and crematoriums in the capital Beijing are struggling to keep up with demand, Reuters reported.
On Friday, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a global health research institute at the University of Washington in Seattle, projected China’s Covid-19 death toll to reach more than 322,000. here April. An analysis of the Reuters report found China could see more than a million coronavirus deaths in 2023, compared to an official toll of just 5,235.
That would put the death toll in China on par with the United States, where 1.1 million people have died of covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.
“However we look at it, it’s very likely that the next few months will be quite challenging for China,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a video statement earlier this month. “The populations most at risk in the world are those who have avoided a lot of transmission and who have gaps in vaccination. And this is exactly the case for China.
The virus first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019 – and quickly spread around the world. But after that initial outbreak, Chinese authorities embarked on an uncompromising strategy to prevent transmission, closing the country’s borders, isolating patients and their contacts and, in some cases, closing entire cities to prevent the virus. to circulate.
As new, more infectious variants have emerged – including omicron and its offshoots – the strategy has become less effective, experts say, while angering residents who have watched the rest of the world open up.
The virus was already spreading “intensely” in China before authorities eased restrictions on December 1. 7, the World Health Organization said last week.
“There’s a narrative right now that China has lifted the restrictions and all of a sudden the disease is out of control,” WHO emergency director Mike Ryan said in a briefing on Wednesday. press conference. “The disease was spreading intensively because I believe the control measures by themselves did not stop the disease. And I believe China has strategically decided that is no longer the best option.
Yet a separate study published last week by Hong Kong researchers predicted that 684 people per million would die if China reopened without a mass vaccination booster campaign and other measures. According to an analysis by Bloomberg News, this would represent approximately 964,000 deaths during the reopening.
China’s official coronavirus vaccination rate is 90%, which includes two doses of its locally produced vaccines. But these vaccines, which use older technology, have lower efficacy rates than messenger RNA vaccines and offer weaker protection against newer variants, experts say. Another problem in China is vaccine hesitancy, especially among the elderly. Only 40% of Chinese people over 80 have received a booster shot.
“China’s vaccine-induced immunity has waned over time and with low booster intake and no natural infections, the population is more susceptible to severe disease,” said Airfinity, a health analytics firm. based in London.
Airfinity’s own models, released in late November, projected between 1.3 million and 2.1 million deaths in China if the government abruptly ended its zero covid policy.
Other estimates have been even gloomier. Also in November, epidemiologists led by Zhou Jiatong, the head of the Center for Disease Control in China’s Guangxi region, estimated that more than 2 million people could die if the country suffered a covid-19 surge similar to that which hit Hong Kong in the spring.
Because China stopped publishing asymptomatic cases – and appeared to tighten its definition of a covid death – earlier this month, IHME and others used the Hong Kong omicron outbreak to inform their models. The variant tore through the densely populated region, and in three months, the population of just 7.4 million has seen more than a million new cases of coronavirus and some 7,000 deaths.
Today, the severity of China’s coronavirus outbreak is reported largely anecdotally, with stories of deserted streets, strained hospitals and funeral homes, and pharmacies emptied of fever medication and cures. traditional.
Murray, the director of IHME, said China had several options. This could slow the transition away from zero covid to avoid overwhelming hospitals. He could also change course and try to inoculate residents with mRNA vaccines or increase access to antiviral drugs such as Paxlovid.
Last week, Pfizer signed an agreement with state-owned China Meheco Group Co. to import and distribute Paxlovid on the mainland, Bloomberg News reported.
The Hong Kong-based researchers also wrote that waiting a month to reopen and using that time to increase coverage of boosters and antivirals could reduce cumulative deaths in China by 26%.
“Although the increased disease burden posed by reopening in December 2022 – January 2023 would likely overwhelm most local health systems nationwide, a reopening strategy that combines vaccination, antiviral treatment and [public health and social measures] could allow China to emerge from zero-COVID in a safer way,” they wrote.
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